More snow for NJ: Showers Thursday, widespread 1-3″ this weekend

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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

The Bottom Line

The forecast really reads like typical February weather. Chilly temperatures. A couple bursts of cold wind. And some snow.

There are still no major winter storms on the horizon for New Jersey. But temperatures will continue to run below normal for the foreseeable future. And we are getting more serious about two snow chances coming up.

The first will bring spotty showers to New Jersey Thursday evening, with a healthy coating possible in North Jersey.

And the second will be more impactful, with widespread (statewide) snow Saturday morning, on the order of 1 to 3 inches. Mainly to the south this time around. (It has been a while since we have had a rightful "South Jersey special" snow event.)

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Thursday

It's hard to find a truly "nice" day in the short-range forecast here. But Thursday will be OK.

Thursday morning is definitely cold. Our coldest morning in quite a while. The entire state is frozen, with temperatures mainly in the teens and 20s. Thankfully, winds are light. But you will still be bundling up to start the day.

The day begins with crystal clear skies and bright sunshine. But clouds will roll in from midday to the afternoon.

High temperatures will reach around the 40 degree mark. That is still below normal — at the midpoint of February, we would like to be closer to the mid 40s.

A quick batch of spotty showers is likely to sweep across New Jersey Thursday evening. Let's say between 5 p.m. and 10 p.m. So expect a few hours of snowflakes and raindrops. In North Jersey, north of Interstate 78, we could see up to a half-inch of accumulation. Not really on roads, but on cold surfaces. South of I-78, I suspect mainly rain will fall from the sky.

Overall, Thursday evening's cold front is not a big deal. But worth watching out for, especially if you will be out and about in North Jersey.

After snow and rain clear the Garden State, skies will clear after about Midnight. A noticeable westerly breeze will kick up too. Low temperatures will end up around the freezing mark, in the lower 30s.

Friday

Friday's weather in a word: Blustery. Windy and cold.

That wind will blow out of the northwest, gusting above 30 mph through at least the morning hours. Friday's high temperatures will be similar to Thursdays, close to 40 degrees. But that wind is going to bite.

At least Friday's weather will be dry. And skies will be relatively bright, progressing from mostly sunny in the morning to partly sunny in the afternoon.

Saturday

Saturday morning is looking interesting. And by interesting, I mean snowy.

I dabbled with the idea of drawing a snow map for Saturday morning, but I decided against it. Mainly for clarity, so nobody gets confused with Thursday night's snow shower chance. But also because I'm not sure exactly where to draw the dividing line between "light" and "moderate" snow.

So let's call it a widespread 1 to 3 inches across New Jersey. Closer to the 1" in North Jersey, closer to the 3" side for inland South Jersey. Snow will fall between about Midnight and 10 a.m., with the steadiest stuff right around daybreak Saturday morning.

South Jersey could experience what I would quantify as "moderate" snow accumulations. I would not be surprised at all to see an advisory issued for the southern half of the state. Roadways could become slushy and/or icy, slowing down your drive early Saturday morning.

After the snow, Saturday will be mostly cloudy with late-day clearing. And it will be breezy again, with northwest winds to 20 mph. High temperatures should make it into the upper 30s or so Saturday afternoon.

Sunday

Sunday will finally bring a return of bright, quiet weather. A warming trend will begin too.

It will be quite cold Sunday morning, especially with that widespread fresh snow cover. I expect thermometers to be close to 20 degrees.

Highs on Sunday should reach the lower 40s. More seasonable, but still a bit below normal.

The Extended Forecast

Next week's weather looks very quiet, as high pressure builds overhead. Temperatures will moderate even more as the week goes on.

Monday looks sunny and seasonable, with highs in the mid 40s. More of the same on Tuesday, mostly sunny and mid 40s. And on Wednesday, we could see some 50s around, along with scattered clouds.

The next storm system to watch will arrive around next Friday. Models are still struggling with rain vs. snow, and the magnitude of the impacts of this system on NJ. It's still over a week away. Just worth watching at this point.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.