Is New Jersey in a Drought?

There is a slight risk that New Jersey may see a drought this year.

Precipitation Values

In April, New Brunswick has seen 2.20 inches of precipitation. There has been no precipitation for over a week and a half. And no significant precipitation for over two weeks.

Average values of precipitation for April is 3.73 inches. These values are averages from 1895 to 2011.

The old normal temperature for April is 3.93 inches. The old normal is based on values from 1971 to 2000.

The new normal temperature for April is 4.06 inches. The new normal is based  on values from 1981 to 2010.

Precipitation values for this month has definitely been way below average compared to the average values, and old and new normals. Even last month in March, preliminary reports state that New Jersey was about an inch below average.

Current Weather

An upper-level trough will move through our region Monday, which will provide New Jersey with some precipitation. But the majority of the precipitation will be in southern New Jersey, while northern New Jersey will most likely receive less than a tenth of an inch. Accumulations may increase as we progress throughout the day, and into the night.

Residents in Cape May are already seeing 0.4 to 0.6 inches of precipitation.

Climate Prediction Center

According to the Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Drought Monitor, New Jersey is not in any drought risk. But the surrounding areas such as Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island are all classified as a D0 drought intensity.

D0 is the lowest of the drought intensities, and means abnormally dry. The Climate Prediction Center predicts that it will be short term, lasting less than 6 months.

Precipitation Outlook

According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 6 to 10 day precipitation probability outlook, New Jersey has a 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation.

For the 8 to 14 day precipitation probability outlook, New Jersey has a 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation.

New Jersey Drought Information

If we take a look at the New Jersey and Northeast reservoirs from http://www.njdrought.org/reservoir.html we can see that basically all the reservoirs are either above or at average.

Last year the Newark and combined Northeast reservoirs, were indeed in a drought. Currently we are not in a drought, and I do not believe we will be in one unless we go several weeks without any precipitation.