Light to moderate snow already dropped a few inches of snow across New Jersey on Monday, but this storm is just getting started with blizzard conditions intensifying overnight.

UPDATE as of Midnight...

It has been snowing at a steady clip across Monmouth and Ocean counties for several hours now, and an even heavier snow band is creeping toward the Jersey Shore. If that snow band makes it to land, and if it stalls over any area for a period, snow totals will accumulate very quickly. With wind gusts topping 30 MPH this morning, we will be very close to blizzard criteria for a time.

Here's the latest radar - dark blue colors indicate the heaviest snow bands...

The mesoscale models have finally gotten on-board with overnight snow, so I've actually become more confident at accumulating snow statewide since earlier this evening.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model forecast for 3AM Tuesday (College of DuPage Meteorology)

Between 2 AM and 10 AM, we should see the bulk of our remaining snow accumulation. I maintain a forecast of over a foot for the Blizzard Warning area from Bergen to Ocean counties. 6 to 12 inches is looking to be a distinct possibility a bit further inland and along the south coast. Unfortunately, western New Jersey (particularly in the southern half of the state) will see no more than 2-4 inches of accumulation.

Original post from Monday evening...

The snow "bullseye" for this storm is still expected to stretch from New York City and Long Island up to Boston, where snow will be easily measured in feet instead of inches. I think the severity of this storm remains best described by the National Weather Service: "a crippling and potentially historic blizzard".

Snow totals have been tweaked slightly, but the expectation of 6 to 24+ inches of snow holds steady. Here is our latest forecast:

The latest blizzard forecast for January 26-27, 2014 (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)

New Jersey is getting "clipped" by the heavy stuff, which is why the big snow totals are limited to far northeastern New Jersey and the eastern portions of Middlesex, Monmouth, and Ocean counties. It's pretty clear that there will be a very tight gradient between "boom" and "bust" - in other words, one town may see 2 feet of snow, while the next town to the west will only see 6 inches.

Regardless, this remains a significant winter storm that will have lasting impacts throughout the Garden State. Winds will remain fierce all night, gusting as high as 50 mph. That wind will easily blow around the powdery, fluffy snow, reducing visibility even beyond the heavy falling snow alone. In addition, the strong winds and heavy snow increase the risk for power outages, which would make a bad situation even worse without power, light, and heat.

A Blizzard Warning contains through Tuesday for Bergen, Passaic, Hudson, Essex, Union, Middlesex, Monmouth, and Ocean counties. The rest of the state is under a slightly-less-ominous-but-still-serious Winter Storm Warning.

We'll keep this page updated through the night with the latest forecast information, so share it and bookmark it. The majority of the New Jersey 101.5 team is literally camped out at the station tonight to keep you informed both on-air and online. We’ll continue to keep you updated on conditions right through the peak of the storm, in addition to providing critical information on cleanup and lingering impacts.