Friday’s daytime snow storm: Big headache for NJ commuters

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UPDATE as of 7:30 p.m. Thursday...

UPDATE as of 3:50 p.m. Thursday...

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The Bottom Line

South Jersey went almost two years straight without a single inch of snow. And now, two snow events in one week.

Mother Nature, you crazy.

Thursday will be relatively quiet, although definitely still cold. And then Friday turns wintry once again. A significant complication in this impending winter storm is the timing. This is a daytime event. You might make it to work/school trouble-free. But getting home might be a beastly task.

Having said that, this is not a major winter storm or blizzard. No "bread and milk" run this time around. There also will not be any prolonged sleet and freezing rain causing icing — it is a snow storm. No wind, and minimal coastal flooding issues.

I have increased the snow total forecast for most of New Jersey, to the 2 to 4+ inch range. That plus is very important, as there is a reasonable chance for overperformance here. If a narrow band of heavy snow sets up, totals may creep toward 6 inches. Firmly a "moderate impact" kind of event.

Looking beyond the storm, Saturday will be the coldest day of the week. (Hard to believe, since it has been so frigid lately.) Then temperatures moderate into next week.

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Thursday: Fairly Quiet

As of this writing (6:30 a.m.), clouds are quickly streaming into New Jersey's sky. So we have lost the spectacular winter sunshine from Wednesday, replaced by mostly cloudy to overcast conditions throughout Thursday.

Morning temperatures are still in the deep freezer, averaging 20 degrees. But the afternoon will be better. Afternoon highs should max out in the lower to mid 30s. I expect most of New Jersey will (barely) reach above freezing.

There will be a few flurries and snow showers around throughout the day Thursday. I will keep that snow shower chance alive through Thursday night too. There could even be a dusting or coating on the ground in spots by daybreak Friday. But that's it so far.

Timeline: A Daytime Storm

The primary impact window for this storm system will be Friday mid morning through early evening. Let's say 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. Light to moderate snow will be pretty steady across the state in that time frame.

Even more specifically, I will be watching the afternoon hours as the "brunt" of the storm, with the chance of widespread moderate snow and the fastest snow accumulation. Therefore, road conditions will be at their worst during the afternoon and evening hours.

That will make for a snowy, slushy, icy, tricky, and treacherous Friday evening commute. That's the big concern and the big impact from this winter storm. Accumulation during the day is always precarious.

Consider your travel plans carefully for Friday. If you can work from home, or shift your driving hours around, all the better.

School districts have an especially challenging decision to make for Friday. An early dismissal might be a smart option, although it will almost certainly be snowing and starting to accumulate by the end of the shortened day. A total closure would be playing it safe, but might be overkill for places that "only" see an inch or two of snow. Delayed opening would be pointless, as the steadiest snow is backloaded in the afternoon hours.

Inland South/Central NJ: The Sweet Spot

I am now expecting the bulk of New Jersey to pick up a fresh 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation, an increase from my previous forecasts.

Three big reasons for the ramp-up:
1.) Longer duration steady snow on Friday, potentially lasting into the evening hours.
2.) The math just makes sense. 4 to 8 hours times 0.5" per hour snowfall equals 2 to 4 inches total.
3.) There is a chance for overperformance in the southern half of the state.

You may have heard forecasters refer to an "inverted trough" setup, a bubble of unstable air that could result in a narrow band of very heavy snow. It has happened in New Jersey before. I am not convinced the setup is perfect — some models keep the strongest forcing over Delaware instead. But it is something we will have to watch as the storm plays out on Friday.

That is why I have included a "plus" on the 2-4" forecast. Someone in that dark blue area could get 5" or 6" of accumulation. But certainly not everyone.

(I may narrow down the overperformance possibilities further in my "final call" snow map early Friday morning.)

North Jersey: Minor Snowfall

North Jersey, approximately along and north of the Interstate 78 corridor, should fall out of the steadiest, heaviest snow bands.

But it will still be a wintry day, with about 1 to 3 inches of new snow accumulation expected. Travel will still be significantly impacted during the afternoon and evening hours.

Southern Coast: Rain Mixes In

As an east-northeast breeze blows (relatively) warmer ocean air ashore, the immediate coast will not see an all-snow situation. Rain will mix in, limiting accumulations to about an inch.

I have pinpointed the southern coast, from LBI to Cape May, east of the Garden State Parkway, as the area most likely to see slushy/wet rather than snowy conditions.

This Weekend: Another Bitter Blast

Beyond the storm, even colder arctic air arrives for Saturday.

Morning low temperatures will sink into the teens again. A bitter breeze could drag the wind chill ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) near 0°. Right on the edge of truly "dangerous cold".

High temperatures on Saturday will only reach about 20 to 25 degrees. Well below freezing, and quite unseasonable and uncomfortable. Skies will be partly sunny, and weather stays dry.

Sunday will be a little better, with sunshine and highs near 30.

Next Week: Warming Temperatures

The warming trend will continue next week, with 30s on Monday and potentially 40s by Tuesday and Wednesday. That means as another two or three storm systems come into view next week, they will be primarily (if not exclusively) rain makers.

Looking long-range, I do not see a resurgence of frigid temperatures and widespread snow in NJ until the first few days of February.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.