A few days of pleasant, dry, warming weather for NJ

The Bottom Line

Let's recap the 3-day weekend. It rained. Then the wind blew. Then temperatures tumbled. Both Sunday and Monday were unseasonably cool. Even uncomfortably cool at times, especially when the chilly wind blew.

Now, New Jersey finds itself in a pleasant, calm slice of the atmosphere for a few days. Skies will stay bright and dry. And temperatures will slowly warm. Overall, nice October weather.

There is one looming problem in the weather forecast though. And that is the weekend. Of course it looks wet — that has been the story of the fall so far. For several runs now, forecast models have been in lockstep about a storm system soaking the Garden State on Saturday, possibly (eh, probably) lingering into Sunday.

That is so unfortunate, as fall weekends are some of the busiest of the year for outdoor activities. And, in some years, feature some of the nicest weather of the year too.

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Tuesday

Most of New Jersey is waking up to temperatures in the 40s. Not quite as cold as the last two mornings, but you will probably still be reaching for a jacket or sweater early on Tuesday.

Most of New Jersey is also waking up to wet roads. We did have some showers slide through the state overnight. But they departed early Tuesday morning, and the rest of the day should remain completely dry.

We will see sunshine with passing clouds. And you will feel an occasional (cool) breeze, out of the southwest over 15 mph. High temperatures will push into the mid 60s — a few degrees warmer than Monday, but still a few degrees below normal for mid-October.

We'll maintain quiet weather through Tuesday night. Expect a few clouds overhead, with lows temperatures settling in the mid 40s.

Wednesday

A pleasant October day. High temperatures will at least come close to 70 degrees. And sunshine should dominate the sky. (At least through late afternoon.) The day looks completely dry, and wind speeds should stay just below the "breezy" category. Nothing to complain about here.

Thursday

Thursday could be the warmest day of the week, even though clouds will progressively increase throughout the day. I'm putting forecast highs around 70 degrees — realistically we could touch mid 70s in South Jersey if all goes well. Another dry, uneventful, lovely fall day.

Friday

After a string of nice weather days, Friday has potential. However, Friday is also our next chance for a shower. I'm calling it a "slight chance" with the best chance of raindrops in the morning. I suspect most of New Jersey will squeeze out another dry day, so there is not a huge need to cancel outdoor plans.

We will see a mix of clouds and sun on Friday. And temperatures will come down a little bit, to the 60s. (Likely the lower to mid 60s, so we fall below seasonal normals again.)

Saturday & Beyond

Sigh. Sorry to be pessimistic, but the weekend does not look good.

Yet again, sloppy, soggy setup will settle in Saturday morning, with rain probably lasting through much of the day. As that storm system ejects off the coast, it will meander just east of New Jersey for a while. That will keep steady rain chances in the forecast for Sunday along with overcast skies and miserably cool temperatures. Unsettled weather may even carry through midweek next week.

While the threats for flooding and damaging winds are low, our weather does look inclement for several days. Over the next few days, I am going to focus closely on timing and totals. Really, I'm just looking if we can salvage any piece of the weekend. Don't necessarily cancel outdoor activities yet — but you might want to start thinking about a backup plan.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.