A beautiful spring day today, big changes tomorrow
Thermometers will climb into the 70s across most of New Jersey today, but tomorrow will feature clouds, showers, and cooler temperatures.
Here are your weather headlines for Wednesday, April 29, 2015...
Another Beautiful Day
As low pressure continues to depart and high pressure (temporarily) builds in, we have a picture-perfect weather day ahead. Sunshine will dominate today, but you should expect to see a few fair-weather clouds in the sky this afternoon. Meanwhile, temperatures will warm slightly from yesterday, reaching the 71° to 77° range. The only exception could be along the immediate coast; although pleasant temperatures in the 60s will prevail there too.
Rain... or Not?
All week long in this blog, I’ve been waffling over whether Thursday and Friday will bring showers or heavier rain to New Jersey. Today, our forecast introduces a third option... practically nothing.
The GFS has finally come around to a much drier solution, better matching the track and intensity the NAM and Euro have been predicting for several days. But now, the models suggest an even drier forecast... In fact, part of the state (specifically North Jersey) could see no rain at all. A low pushing off the Carolina coast is expected to head out to sea on Thursday, missing New Jersey to the south and east. Another upper-level low will push past the state on Friday. Each will provide a chance for showers, but rainfall amounts at the moment look pretty low. Forecast rain totals in the wettest spots are expected to be less than a tenth of an inch.
The sure bets for Thursday and Friday will be thick clouds and an on-shore flow with east-northeast winds. And that will certainly keep temperatures quite a bit cooler for Thursday and especially Friday. With this kind of setup, the coolest temperatures will be along the coast, thanks to that wind coming right off the ocean. Lower to mid 60s on Thursday will drop even further on Friday, with temperatures likely limited to the 50s.
So even if it doesn’t rain - a distinct possibility - Thursday afternoon through Friday night will be a bit yucky with the clouds and the coolness.
Some clouds and even a shower may holdover into Saturday morning, but then skies will gradually clear to partly and mostly sunny by Saturday afternoon. That will combine with a brisk southwest wind to warm us back up to about normal levels, in the mid to upper 60s. (How warm it gets will be heavily dependent on how sunny it gets.)
Skies should be mostly sunny for most of Sunday, with lighter winds. That will help temperatures climb back into the 70s for at least part of the state. However, the models are hinting at a weak impulse riding across New Jersey Sunday afternoon and evening, which means we have to add a few clouds and a few showers to the forecast too.
And next week? How about mid 70s on Monday, and upper 70s on Tuesday... maybe even 80 degrees? Get ready for some real springtime warmth to kick off the first full week of May!