It’s been a week since the New Jersey gas tax increase of 23 cents a gallon took effect.

Right after the increase, many service stations were charging more than the additional 23 cents — but it turns out there was a perfectly good reason for it.

Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis, at the Oil Price Information Service, said right before the tax hike took effect on November, the average price for unleaded regular in New Jersey was $2.04. In the days that followed many stations were charging $2.29, before prices dropped a penny on average, to $2.28 Monday.

“You had a wholesale price surge early in the week (last week) that was tied to a breakdown in the Colonial pipeline, which pumps over a million barrels a day of gasoline up to the northeast,” he said. “That’s been fixed and we also seen crude oil prices come roaring lower, so maybe the worst is over, at least for this month.”

In fact, from this point moving forward, Kloza expects some relief at the pump.

“Prices almost always drift lower in November and sometimes they drift appreciably lower. They tend to get even more competitive in November and December because demand is lower than it is in July and August and I think we’re on that sort of a course,” he said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the year you see some occasional prices below $2 — maybe not the average, but it could dip that low at some stations," Kloza said.

Kloza pointed out it’s very doubtful that any service stations will try to force up the price of gas in New Jersey anytime soon, because the market has become very competitive.

“First of all you have companies like Costco that are forbidden by their own bylaws to charge X amount above wholesale, and you’ve got the Wawas and QuikChecks that operate under pretty minimum volumes because it’s really about getting people inside the store to buy the high profit items,” he said.

Kloza added the bottom line is “I think the course for the rest of the year, and certainly for the rest of the month is for slightly lower prices.”

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