Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog from Pennsylvania, did not see his shadow on Saturday February 2, meaning that spring will come early.

If he did see his shadow, it means that winter will last six more weeks. But how accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

Since the 1900s, Punxsutawney Phil has been correct about 39 percent of the time. Last year, Punxsutawney Phil predicted that winter will last six more weeks. As most of us know, last winter was the fourth warmest winter the United States experienced and New Jersey had one of its warmest winter on record as well.

Temperature Outlook

According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook gave New Jersey a 70 percent probability of above-normal temperatures.

The 8 to 14 day temperature outlook gave New Jersey a 60 percent probability of above-normal temperatures.

The one month temperature outlook gave New Jersey an equal chance of either above, below, or normal temperatures.

So Far This Winter

The month of January, New Jersey experienced 22 out of 31 days of above-normal temperatures. Going two months back, in December, New Jersey experienced 27 of 31 days of above-normal temperatures.