The polls will close at 8 p.m. and we'll have a new governor elected. As we saw in 2016, the public polls and pundits don't always get it right.

We had a detailed discussion with one of the smartest and most effective pollsters in New Jersey Tuesday, my friend Adam Geller. He's polling for Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno and also serves as a pollster for President Donald Trump. Adam was successful polling for Trump during the 2016 campaign helping guide campaign resources into traditionally blue areas where Trump was outperforming his rival, despite the public polls showing a wide gap favoring Hillary and giving her a greater than 80 percent chance of winning.

Our conversation this morning covered a few points about how public polls are less credible when they over sample a demographic less likely to turnout or skew the numbers in favor of a higher-than-expected turnout percentage for one party. We also discussed the local races and how they will impact turnout.

In Monmouth and Middlesex counties in particular, contested local races will drive turnout and it's possible that theses areas will contain the formula for an upset win for Kim Guadagno. We won't know until the votes are counted, but one thing is for certain: despite public polling, it's now up to you as a voter. If you believe, as I do, that Phil Murphy will be an unmitigated disaster for our state, specifically for union workers who will likely lose jobs to an influx of illegals from his sanctuary state policy, then you need to turnout and vote for Kim.

If you believe as I do, that working class taxpayers, including teachers, firefighters and cops will bear the burden for his tax increases because his numbers don't add up, then you gotta turnout and vote for Kim. who will have to pay for the billions in promises he's made to special interests. If you believe, as I do, that his promise of spending billions more in order to lower taxes, not only makes no logical sense, but it will create a situation with our budget that balloons our debt and make it harder to keep the promise to workers expecting their pensions when they retire, you gotta vote for Kim.

And finally, as you've gotten to know Kim over the past few years on my show, you know that she's a sincere working and military mom, former sheriff and active public servant. It's time we really take a step toward making NJ affordable again. Democrat or Republican, the choice is clear this time. I've made mine, have you?

Bill Spadea is on the air weekdays from 6 to 10 a.m., talkin’ Jersey, taking your calls at 1-800-283-1015. Tweet him @NJ1015 or @BillSpadea.

More from New Jersey 101.5:

[gravityform id=221 name=Signup for the NJ1015.com Newsletter