What Will The New Jobs Report Show? [AUDIO]
The U.S. Department of Labor releases new data today on national employment conditions last month.
Many economists expect the report to show between 100 and 120 thousand new jobs were created in August, which is not enough to lower the unemployment rate.
Pat O’Keefe, the Director of Economic Research at JH Cohn, says if we factor in recent ADT payroll reports, it indicates that “job growth is beginning to approach what we saw in the first couple of months of this year, when we were averaging almost 200 thousand net new jobs per month.”
He says, “If we are getting back to what we experienced in the first quarter of this year, it would indicate that nationally the jobs market has finally achieved escape velocity. In other words, we will be adding enough jobs, month to month to make a meaningful impact on the number of unemployed, and simultaneously keep up with the growth in the labor force- because more and more people turn of age where they look for a job.”
O’Keefe adds the trend in the job market is that “we are gradually gaining jobs, and the underlying trend appears to be at least holding its current pace – maybe gaining some momentum…The long term job growth trend appears to be favorable, but it’s too early in the cycle to say that the job growth is accelerating…We continue to see several signals that the recovery is preceding – it’s not accelerating as much as anybody would like, but it is preceding…This pattern of slow growth, both in terms of gross domestic product and employment, is something that we will have for several more years…And that’s simply because the excesses of the borrowing binge in the early part of this century…the overhang we have in the housing sector- are issues that will only be resolved with the passage of time.”