Wet and cloudy Thursday, warm and humid Friday
Showers are expected in New Jersey for both Thursday morning and afternoon, as clouds limit high temperatures to the 70s.
Here are your weather headlines for Thursday, June 18, 2015...
Still a Bit Unsettled
A disturbance is pushing some rain through New Jersey this morning. As expected, the steadiest rain so far has been located along and south of I-195. Nothing too heavy out there, and we'll see a drying and clearing trend later this morning.
A few isolated showers will remain possible this afternoon - models have actually flip-flopped between scattered showers and almost nothing, so I'm splitting the difference in our forecast. The Storm Prediction Center has part of New Jersey in a "marginal" risk for severe weather today, but I'm thinking instability and available moisture will be too low for anything widespread.
It does appear that clouds will remain thick all day, keeping temperatures on the cool side. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, in the 71° to 78° range.
Nice Breaks in the Rain
A cold front will push through the Northeast early Friday morning... Don't focus on the "cold" part of that front description though, as temperatures will soar to close out the workweek.
We'll likely have to deal with some showers for part of the Friday morning commute as well. But, just like today, heavy rain and thunderstorms are NOT expected. Skies should clear a bit through the day on Friday, to partly sunny. Highs will be in the 83° to 90° range tomorrow, with humidity bumping heat indices well into the 90s.
Meanwhile, that heat will ramp up our atmospheric instability (energy), so conditions will be ripe for an isolated thunderstorm or two tomorrow afternoon. Any storm that gets going tomorrow could become strong or severe quickly.
The start of the weekend is looking pretty nice, and Saturday will almost certainly end up the winner of the weekend. Highs will be limited to about 80° under partly sunny skies. I can't completely rule out the possibility of rain showers for Saturday, but that chance is pretty slight.
Bill / Father's Day
If you're a dad AND your name is Bill, you have extra reason to celebrate this coming Sunday... not only is it Father's Day, but the remnants of Tropical Depression Bill could bring torrential rain to New Jersey. Bill is currently dumping heavy rain over the Southern Plains, before taking a turn to the northeast and head our way through this weekend.
An important rule in meteorology... Never ever underestimate the deep moisture of a tropical system. Even though the models have backed off the total rainfall a bit, I am not backing off a rainy forecast for Sunday at all. Periods of heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms are expected, as those remnants of Bill ride along an encroaching warm front.
The big unknown at the moment is the timing of the rain. For now, we should expect the first raindrops in New Jersey sometime between about 5 a.m. and 2 p.m. on Sunday. Yes, I realize that's a pretty big window... but that's why the timing element is presently a big unknown. Since lots of New Jerseyans have outdoor plans on Father's Day Sunday, we'll be watching this forecast closely as it continues to evolve.