Weekend forecast for NJ: A bit of rain, then big improvements
Friday will be a mostly dry, warm, humid day across the Garden State, with improving weather conditions throughout the weekend.
Another day in the books, and Thursday brought yet another round of drenching thunderstorms to a few segments of the Garden State. Northern Burlington County and southern Mercer County had some flooding issues as anywhere from 2 to 5+ inches of rain fell from a sluggish heavy thunderstorm.
We're waking up to a smattering of isolated showers and thunderstorms on this Friday morning. A few localized downpours and some loud thunder, but otherwise unremarkable. Most of our rain activity on this Friday will occur during the morning hours, although I wouldn't rule a shower at some point Friday afternoon. (Especially in NW NJ late-day.)
The rest of Friday reads like a warm, humid, breezy summer day. We'll see a mix of hazy sunshine and fair-weather clouds overhead. Most high temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 80s. 90 is a possibility in SW NJ. The Jersey Shore will be the cool spot, as usual — just be aware an elevated risk for dangerous rip currents will develop as winds increase Friday afternoon.
Friday evening looks partly cloudy, muggy, and quiet. Our main attention through the overnight will be the approaching cold front that will dramatically change our weather through the weekend.
That cold front should push across New Jersey from NW to SE, between about 4 a.m. and 10 a.m. Saturday morning. Some rain activity is expected, although forecast model precipitation looks unimpressive (especially in central and southern New Jersey). While I wouldn't rule out a few pockets of heavy rain, it looks like we'll be spared from bad severe weather or flooding from this frontal passage.
As rain is swept out to sea around mid-morning Saturday, improvements will begin. Our new drier, cooler air mass will begin clearing skies through Saturday afternoon. So Saturday will turn into a nice day, with increasing sunshine and high temperatures in the lower 80s or so.
Sunday looks quite pleasant as well. Skies will be mostly sunny for most of the day, with highs near 80 degrees. One model — the NAM — suggests a shower will creep into New Jersey Sunday evening. But I'm calling that a slight chance, since no other forecast model supports such an early arrival to our next storm system.
However, Monday looks wet. And cloudy. And breezy and cooler. In fact, it looks like clouds and below-normal weather will win the sky for most of next week.