Weather stays quiet and pleasant until the weekend
Both today and tomorrow will feature seasonable temperatures in the 70s and dry weather, although the upcoming weekend is looking warm and potentially wet.
Here are your weather headlines for Thursday, May 14, 2015...
Two More Nice Days
We experienced a pretty chilly start to the morning with most temperatures in the 40s. There have been a few 30s in North Jersey too, and presumably some patchy frost in Sussex and Warren counties as a result. It’s worth noting that frost is not that unusual for the northwest corner of the state for this time of year, as the average last frost of the year for Sussex is roughly May 23. (Such cold would be unusual for anywhere else in the state though, where average final frosts are in late April to early May.)
Abundant sunshine and high pressure will keep our weather quiet and our temperatures comfortable today, with highs between 69° and 74° statewide. Winds should be lighter today than yesterday, only gusting to about 15 mph (compared to 30 mph yesterday).
We’ll squeeze out one more nice day tomorrow, with highs again the seasonable 70s. Skies will become increasingly cloudy as your Friday presses on, but New Jersey should stay dry during the daytime hours.
Warm, Wet Weekend?
A warm front will crawl through the state on Saturday morning. There could be a few rain showers that pop up in the early morning hours as the front passes. Additionally, the front will kick up a brisk southwest wind to about 20 mph. And, as the name implies, we’ll have a marked warmup, with lower to mid 80s expected by Saturday afternoon.
However, the chance for rain will only increase as Saturday afternoon arrives. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms (spawned in part by the heat of the day) are likely on Saturday, and some of those storms could become strong or severe given the humidity return and instability. But Saturday will not be a washout. In fact, in a change from our forecast yesterday, some of New Jersey may very well end up staying dry (or mostly dry) on Saturday. It will still be a “keep an eye on the sky” day as someone somewhere in the Garden State will get wet.
Sunday raises a few additional question marks, as there will be a continuing chance for a few showers or thunderstorms. However, Sunday's rain chances don’t look to be as well-defined or as high as those on Saturday. A wind shift over to the southeast will keep coastal locations a bit cooler on Sunday too.
Early Next Week... Unsettled
The rain chances continue for Monday into Tuesday. And this stretch early next week could feature our heaviest, most widespread rain in several weeks.
An isolated shower will be possible on Monday, although the daytime hours look mostly dry for now. The big forecast problem for Monday at the moment is the temperature... model statistics are showing a pretty cool day (lower 60s), but there’s no real weather justification for the chill. Meanwhile, our forecast for Monday from yesterday (just beyond the 5-Day Forecast) pegged highs in the lower 80s. Big difference! So for now, the safest bet is to forecast a middle ground solution - 64° to 72° statewide - and see how the forecast evolves as Monday approaches. Frankly, uncertainty is high, and these forecast temperatures and weather conditions for Monday could ultimately go either way, warmer or colder.
Our next big weather maker will arrive Monday night into Tuesday, as a cold front will bring a period of thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain. Additionally, the front will open the door to some cooler, below-normal temperatures through the middle of next week. Best timing for the rain right now looks to be from about midnight Monday night through early afternoon Tuesday. Heavy rain would be wonderful for the short-term drought and pollen situations, so let’s keep our fingers crossed!