Sunshine returns, along with warm temperatures and lower humidity
New Jersey will enjoy a temporary respite from the humidity and unsettled skies on Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies and highs near 80°.
Good Wednesday Morning! I'm happy to be back in the weather center following a wonderful week-and-a-half of vacation, as my wife and I welcomed our son Jackson into the world. Thank you so much for the kind words... Jack and Mommy are doing great, and we have been enjoying our time as a newly expanded family.
Here are your weather headlines for Wednesday, June 17, 2015...
I'm happy to bring a nice, dry weather day with me as I return to work today... especially given how uncomfortably humid and stormy it's been lately.
A cold front swept through New Jersey late last night, putting a temporary end to our rain chances and bringing us slightly cooler and less humid air. Even though dew points will only be 5 to 10 degrees lower than yesterday, that will be enough to make a huge difference in the mugginess today. I'm calling it a warm and comfortable day, with sunshine to start and a few clouds creeping in later.
Overall, nothing much to complain about in the weather forecast today... Enjoy!
Rest of the Week... Iffy...
We're entering the time of year when loud, powerful thunderstorms occur regularly... and we've seen several rounds of such storms over the past several days. While we get a nice break today from the rain, it will return at some point through the rest of the week. Well... it might...
I am supremely disappointed in the disparity between the models for Thursday's precipitation forecast... The GFS paints an almost completely dry picture, while the NAM includes persistent showers starting late tonight through the day tomorrow. In either case, I don't think we'll see anything too heavy falling from the sky, as we'll be lacking any big pool of moisture, and instability should be pretty low. So along with that all-day *chance* of scattered showers, we'll add just a slight chance for a rumble of thunder or local downpour.
By early Friday morning, the rain chances taper off once again and we should get another mostly dry, mostly clear daytime to close out the workweek. High temperatures on Friday will climb to the seasonable lower 80s or so.
Father's Day Weekend
Sunday is both Father's Day and the Summer Equinox (at 12:38 p.m.), so it's a big weekend! Unfortunately, our weather is not looking too good.
The big issue affecting this weekend's weather forecast is now-Tropical Depression Bill, and its expected track across the Plains and Midwest over the next few days. Tropical systems can carry a tremendous abundance of moisture, even after spending significant time over land. As that pool of moisture arrives in New Jersey late Saturday into Sunday, the potential will certainly be there for widespread heavy rain and flash flooding.
Here's how I think the weekend is going to play out... Saturday will start off fine with mostly to partly sunny skies and seasonably warm highs in the lower 80s. If we're lucky (and the current models suggest we will be), the daytime hours on Saturday will remain dry across the Garden State. But a warm front will push our way Saturday night into Sunday, as that deep pool of moisture from Bill's remnants will ride through during the same time frame That spells the likelihood for thunderstorms and pockets of very heavy rain for the second half of the weekend. Unfortunately, that means Father's Day may be a washout for much of the state.
The early look at next week shows a drier but hot forecast, with highs near 90° for Monday and Tuesday.