Some real Spring weather coming later this week

While New Jersey’s weather will remain quiet and cool on Tuesday, rain and warmer temperatures are on the way for Wednesday and especially Thursday.

Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, March 24, 2015...

Tuesday

Our weather will stay cool and mostly quiet for Tuesday. The cool, stable air mass that has been over New Jersey since the weekend is unhinging a bit, and we have seen some clouds, sprinkles, and flurries as a result. Clouds will be variable for Tuesday - sometimes skies will be “mostly” sunny and sometimes it will only be “partly” sunny. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, with highs around 40 degrees for the third day in a row.

Wednesday

Clouds and atmospheric moisture will noticeably increase through early Wednesday. Eventually those clouds will open up and produce some showers, perhaps as early as early Wednesday afternoon, but more likely Wednesday evening. Again, anything that falls from the sky on Wednesday should be “showery” - a.k.a. light and spotty. In addition, that precipitation should be all liquid - a.k.a. rain - as high temperatures will approach 50° and low temperatures will be no cooler than about 38° or 39° on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Thursday

Thursday is going to be a “real” springtime day for New Jersey, with a combination of warm temperatures and rainy conditions. Additionally, with some instability popping up in the models for Thursday, there's a chance for some thunderstorms too.

New Jersey will be caught in an active storm track from Wednesday night through Friday morning, and we’ll a series of impulses will ride that trough to bring us a series of rain chances. At the moment, the heaviest, steadiest rain during the day on Thursday looks to fall during the mid to late morning hours. If we see a break in the rainfall action Thursday afternoon, or if you have a good umbrella, you’ll certainly enjoy the warm temperatures. Total rainfall looks to end up in the 1-2" range for Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast highs for Thursday are in the 58° to 65° range, which I’m happy to say will be above average for late March.

The rain and the warmth will come to an end Thursday night, as a cold front pushes through New Jersey. In the moist, warm air ahead of that cold front, we should see the heaviest rain of the day and the week. It will come late Thursday evening (around 10 p.m.) and it will be convective in nature - a narrow band of heavy rain fueled by the warmth and plenty of atmospheric moisture. And with that warmth, atmospheric instability could lead to some lightning and thunder. The threat is low (but still present) for any damaging winds from this potential line of thunderstorms. Every thunderstorm is potentially dangerous - it's certainly something we’ll be watching.

Following the frontal passage, our weather quickly becomes cooler and drier for Friday, with partly sunny skies and highs around 50°.