Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
New Jersey's weather will become a bit unsettled as we close the month of June and begin July, with showers and potentially strong thunderstorms expected.
Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, June 30, 2015...
Increasing Clouds, Humidity, and Rain Chances
We have enjoyed about 48 hours of pleasant, dry, comfortable weather. As we close the books on June on Tuesday, clouds will spread and skies will transition from mostly sunny to partly sunny to mostly cloudy. In addition, atmospheric moisture will slowly increase today (and especially tonight), so that muggy feeling will return. And that humidity will likely provide an assist to some showers and thunderstorms that look to cross the Delaware River late this afternoon through this evening. High temperatures will be just below seasonal normals today, in the lower 80s.
The best chance for stronger thunderstorms will be along the western edge of New Jersey, especially in the southwest corner of the state. On its daily Convective Outlook map, the Storm Prediction Center has placed almost all of New Jersey into a "Marginal Risk" for severe weather. A tiny sliver of the western border of the state is under a higher "Slight Risk" for bad storms. The biggest threats will be marginally gusty winds (60 mph) and locally heavy downpours. This is NOT going to be a widespread severe weather event here in New Jersey, but we all need to remain vigilant given the possibility of a stronger storm cell or two.
I think somewhere in New Jersey will see some sort of rain at some point today, tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday. Blah. But none of those four days will be complete washouts. Woohoo.
In addition to this afternoon's storm chance, another round of rain is expected around daybreak Wednesday morning. Nothing incredibly heavy here, but you may encounter some nuisance raindrops on your morning commute.
Temperatures on Wednesday are going to really cook, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Add in high humidity, and it's probably going to get a bit uncomfortable. In addition, that heat and humidity will help to fuel some isolated thunderstorms throughout Wednesday afternoon. Not everyone is going to get hit by these storms, but any cell that gets going could very quickly grow to strong or severe limits. Wednesday will be another one of those "keep an eye on the sky" day, especially if you have outdoor plans (including commuting).
Yesterday, I painted a very wet picture for Thursday, which will be a getaway day for the upcoming big holiday weekend. I'm pleased to pass along that the models have shifted the expected rain to the south. So while South Jersey is looking at a period of steady, light rain for Thursday morning, the northern half of the state may stay dry. The day almost certainly will not be a washout for anyone in the state.
4th of July Weekend
On Friday morning, it looks like the Jersey Shore will be clipped by an outgoing storm system, so we have to include one more chance of rain through about Noon. After the rain, skies should clear away to partly sunny by the afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, barely reaching 80° (and even cooler along the coast).
But the rest of the holiday weekend??? Ohhh, it's looking good! I can't guarantee the 4th of July will be completely dry, but I like the trend of the models toward a rain-free solution. At the moment, both Saturday (the 4th) and Sunday look to bring sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 80s or so. I caution that we're still several days away, leaving plenty of time for the forecast to evolve some more. (Especially important given the active, stormy, and wet weather forecast for this week.)
But for now, it looks like this weekend will be at least mostly dry and summerlike!