Quiet, seasonable weather takes hold of New Jersey
A series of weak disturbances will cause a few temperature swings in the Garden State, but the next significant storm system is about a week away.
The past week has been a wild ride of weather! From Winter Storm Warnings late last week, to Wind Chill Warnings this weekend, to Winter Weather Advisories on Monday, to Severe Thunderstorm Warnings on Tuesday: New Jersey has experienced just about every season in the past 72 hours.
As for today? Nothing!
The atmosphere is finally settling down now and we will get to enjoy some quiet, near-normal weather for a few days. Having said that, our weather won't be completely uneventful, as a series of weak disturbances swing through occasional clouds and showers, and cause temperatures to flip-flop a bit over the next week.
Low temperatures on Wednesday morning are bottoming out in the 30s from top to bottom across New Jersey. With the 1+ inch of rain that fell across most of the state on Tuesday, there could be some icy patches in the coldest spots. I do not anticipate a big or widepsread icing problem.
Despite mostly to partly cloudy skies, Wednesday will see seasonable (near-average) high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. Yes, it will be cooler than Tuesday's 50s. Yes, the clouds may make the sky grey and dreary at times. But, all things considered, it should turn into a fairly pleasant mid-February day.
As a weak cold front pushes through New Jersey Wednesday night, we'll see a few subtle changes to our weather. We should stay dry from this frontal passage, as there won't be much energy and moisture to produce any showers. However, it will get pretty chilly by Thursday morning, as lows bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. I would not be surprised to see a few teens return to thermometers on Thursday morning too.
The ultimate effects of that front will be felt Thursday, as a stiff breeze up to 20 mph will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 30s to about 40 degrees. But skies will be mostly sunny: always a nice thing in the middle of winter!
Clouds are expected to increase again on Friday (especially late in the day), and we'll keep a stiff breeze in place. A storm system will push north of New Jersey Friday evening through Friday night, driving a warm front through New Jersey. Unfortunately, forecast models are showing some disagreement to the degree of precipitation that is expected from this front. The NAM model paints a pretty wet picture through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the GFS and European models show little to no rainfall. I'm leaning toward a drier solution, forecasting just a few showers Friday night.
The warm front will push Saturday's high temperatures into the mid 50s with sunshine and a brisk southwest wind, gusting at times to 25 mph. The 2016 Polar Bear Plunge in Seaside Heights is coming up on Saturday and the weather looks to cooperate, although it will be a bit mild with that stiff land breeze. The water's still going to be nice and cold, with ocean temperatures along the Jersey Shore currently reading between 34 and 39 degrees. (I'll be there to assist with Big Joe Henry's live broadcast, but I'm not going anywhere near that frigid water!)
A subsequent cold front will then flip-flop the thermometer again sometime on Sunday. (Timing is still a bit muddled.) That will cause temperatures to fall out of the 50s with a few showers, probably in the PM hours.
Our weather looks to get a bit more active starting Monday night. Models currently show a fairly significant storm system sliding across the mid-Atlantic coast in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame. It looks like almost all rain at this point, but it could get interesting. Way too earlier for details, stay tuned, etc, etc, etc.