Plentiful sunshine, mild temps, and a gusty wind Thursday
Temperatures will yo-yo a bit over the next few days, with some scattered showers in the forecast too.
As expected, we're waking up to some wet weather on this Thursday morning. Showers will turn to sunshine, but the forecast isn't quite perfect.
As of this writing early Thursday morning, radar is showing scattered pockets of rain across the state. There have been a few localized areas of heavier downpour too, producing upwards of a quarter-inch of rain. But temperatures are in the 40s and 50s — well above freezing — so it's all raindrops, and not snowflakes.
By about 8 a.m. Thursday, rain will exit the coast and skies will clear rapidly. Sunshine should break out in abundance by late morning. That will help high temperatures into the upper 50s — South Jersey may very well hit 60 degrees. It'll be our first trip above normal this week!
If that were the complete forecast, it would be a perfectly pleasant November day. Unfortunately, we'll also have to contend with a pretty fierce west-northwest wind, possibly gusting over 30 mph at times. That will certainly add a "blustery" characteristic to the day.
It's also worth mentioning that the HRRR high-resolution model shows a few rain showers popping up across the Garden State Thursday afternoon. The HRRR stands alone among forecast models in this return to wet weather, and an overall drying trend throughout the day goes against that rain chance. Therefore, I'm keeping showers out of my on-air forecast, as the overall chance is quite low.
Thursday night is going to be quite chilly. Not only will clear skies allow thermometers to dip into the mid 30s across most of New Jersey, but the brisk wind continues through the overnight. That will potentially push the wind chill ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) down into the 20s by Friday morning. Bundle up alert!
We'll keep the sunshine and stiff breeze on Friday, and temperatures will end up a bit cooler. High temps around 50 degrees will be about 5 degrees below mid-November norms.
Clouds will increase as the weekend begins on Saturday. Thermometers should recover to the upper 50s. I have to add a chance for showers starting Saturday afternoon — I'm a bit uncertain at this point whether those showers will be more "isolated" or "scattered".
The better chance for rain will arrive early Sunday, between about 1 a.m. and 8 a.m. Just like Thursday morning, we could see a healthy quarter-inch of rainfall.
Behind the rain will come a brisk wind, delivering colder air to the Garden State throughout the day. So temperatures will fall from the 50s Sunday morning into the 40s Sunday afternoon. That will set us up for an overall cold Thanksgiving week. Still no major storm systems are expected through the start of the holiday.