Pleasant Wednesday, warm and windy Thursday for New Jersey
As high pressure controls the Garden State's weather, we will enjoy sunshine, light winds, and above-normal temperatures for the next day or two.
Thermometers Wednesday morning have been reading on the chilly side, in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Subfreezing temperatures are not unusual for the last week of March - we're only about 5 to 7 degrees below normal. However, I'd strongly suggest a jacket through at least mid-morning!
I'm happy to report that winds will be considerably lighter for Wednesday than on Tuesday. In fact, it should be a very nice early Spring/late March day with abundant sunshine and seasonable high temperatures in the upper 50s. Clouds will increase a bit this afternoon. And the Jersey Shore will stay a bit cooler today, as the sea breeze overcomes the land breeze, limiting highs to the lower 50s or so.
Under partly cloudy skies, Wednesday night will bring low temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
A nice warmup is ahead for Thursday, as a gusty south-southwest wind kicks in (up to 40 mph). That will help high temperatures push into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees for Thursday afternoon. The warmth will be welcome. But Thursday won't be a 100% picturesque day, however, as mostly cloudy skies and that wind combine to make things a bit "blah" at times.
Then, our next storm system arrives Thursday evening. The latest model data shows the first raindrops will hold off until 5 p.m. Thursday at the earliest, picking up in intensity through Thursday night and Friday morning.
With high humidity and warm temperatures (in the 70s) on Friday, we will have just enough atmospheric instability to warrant some thunderstorms. Every thunderstorm is potentially dangerous, due to the threat for cloud-to-ground lightning. Occasional heavy rain is possible too. I don't think Friday will be a "total washout" (i.e. rain all day), but it will likely be a pretty wet day overall.
The rain will be swept out of New Jersey Friday evening as a cold front pushes through. Recall that a "front" is simply the leading edge of a different air mass. In this case, the new air mass moving in for the first weekend of April is going to be surprisingly COLD.
Saturday's high temperatures are forecast to only reach the mid 50s. Sunday's highs, however, will be limited to the 40s. That's about 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Additionally, we'll have to deal with a fierce northwest wind for part of the weekend - sustained at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 50 mph. That will keep wind chills in the 20s and 30s all day - ouch! And there's a chance for a snow shower early Sunday morning - ouch again! This late-season cold and snow is not nice at all, Mother Nature.
One more thing to talk about: a clipper system that looks to move through New Jersey between Monday and Tuesday. It's still 5+ days away, leaving plenty of time for this forecast to change in timing and impacts. But temperatures may very well end up cold enough to sustain a period of snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. It is going to be exceptionally difficult for this snow to accumulate, especially given the glancing blow from this relatively weak system on top of our warm ground. But could we see a coating on cold surfaces, especially in the highest elevations of NW NJ? Sure, why not.