One more mild day, then rain and tumbling temps for NJ
Although Tuesday will be a bit colder than Monday by 10+ degrees, we will briefly enjoy a pleasant start to March, before cooler, wetter weather returns.
Welcome to March! As I mentioned in yesterday's blog, we have a typical early springtime pattern setting up this week - featuring a little bit of rain, a little bit of snow, and a roller coaster of temperatures.
Tuesday will feature a dry start to the month, with mostly to partly sunny skies and a light 10 to 15 mph breeze. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than Sunday and Monday, which brought widespread 60s to the Garden State. However, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, we'll still end up a hair above normal for this time of year.
Some changes will be on the way for Tuesday night. As a storm system approaches, clouds will increase and eventually we'll see some rain move in just after midnight.
Light rain will continue through the Wednesday morning commute, eventually tapering off by midday. Aside from some wet roads and occasionally low visibility, the rain should not pose any major problems in New Jersey. There could be a few snowflakes mixed in with the raindrops at the very tail end of the rainfall near Noon on Wednesday.
By Wednesday afternoon, colder air will begin to "whoosh" into New Jersey on a brisk 30+ mph northwest wind. That will cause thermometers to fall sharply throughout the day. Morning (high) temperatures will approach 50 degrees in South Jersey, but could fall into the 30s by late afternoon.
We're looking quite chilly for Thursday, with high temperatures only in the 35 to 40 degree range. A little breeze up to 15 mph will add an extra bite to the cool air. The day will start with sunshine, but clouds will increase through Thursday afternoon.
Another storm system will encroach upon New Jersey's borders in the Thursday night to Friday morning time frame. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding this storm.
The model forecast track of this system has changed very little in the past day. The center of the storm is still expected to pass well south of the Garden State, near the Carolinas. On the northern fringe of this storm, we should expect some snow showers. At the most, I could see a coating to an inch of snow accumulating on grassy and cold surfaces somewhere in New Jersey.
The timing of this Thursday to Friday storm is even trickier, as there remains poor model agreement. The NAM shows the snow will fall between 8 p.m. Thursday and 8 a.m. Friday. The GFS currently says 11 p.m. Thursday to 2 p.m. Friday. The Euro model shows the snow falling between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. Friday. Obviously, the timing of precipitation onset will dictate temperatures, along with the ultimate weather impacts and snowfall totals.
Skies will clear, winds will lighten, and temperatures will warm for the upcoming weekend. b>Friday and Saturday will remain below normal, with high temperatures barely around 40 degrees. Sunday will bump into the mid to upper 40s.
Long-range forecast models are showing even warmer temperatures are on the way for next week! 60s? 70s?