NJ weather this week: Rain, thunderstorms, warm, cold, wind, snow
Holy guacamole. As if Monday's burst of snow wasn't enough, our weather for the next week will be very active and quite tumultuous. And yes, there are a couple more chances of snow on the horizon too.
I want to try something a little different here, because the forecast for the next 48 hours is busy and complicated. Let's break it down by daypart, so you can plan your days accordingly.
--Tuesday Morning: Chilly, with morning lows in the 30s. Increasing clouds with a stray shower.
--Tuesday Afternoon: Scattered rain. In North Jersey, the rain will be potentially steadier and heavier (total rainfall a quarter-inch). Southern and coastal NJ will be lighter and more showery (total rainfall less than a tenth of an inch). Cool afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.
--Tuesday Night: Continuing chance for showers, with possible fog. Thermometers continue to rise overnight. Widespread 50s by daybreak Wednesday.
--Wednesday Morning: Warm to start, with temps spiking into the mid to upper 60s.
--Wednesday Midday: Cold front sparks a round of rain and thunderstorms, between about 11 a.m. and 3 p.m.
--Wednesday Afternoon: Gusty west-northwest wind (to 45 mph) will cause temperatures to tumble. 40s by sunset, with clearing skies and drier weather.
--Wednesday Night: Clear and cold, with overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Weather Winner of the Week
Finally, we'll get a quiet weather day on Thursday! Despite sunny skies, I hesitate to call it a truly "pleasant" day though. A stiff breeze (to 20 mph) will accompany below-normal high temperatures around 50 degrees.
Another Wet, Windy Day
We'll close out the workweek with another complicated warm front-cold front setup on Friday. A period of rain will arrive in the morning, with wet weather likely continuing through the afternoon. While there could be a few snowflakes and/or mixing in North Jersey at onset, any wintry weather should be very brief and uneventful.
The day will start warm, with most high temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Those thermometers will nosedive Friday afternoon, as 40+ mph wind gusts return.
If the sharp cooldown happens before precipitation ends, we could very well see a widespread hit of snow Friday evening too. I could see a quick inch of accumulation in colder, snowier northern NJ. (But please don't hold me to that prediction just yet.)
Big Question Marks
Oh boy. Yet another storm system — the fifth of the week, if you're keeping score — is forecast to come perilously close to South Jersey on Saturday. The latest GFS model shows a miss. The latest European model shows a partial hit, with something like 3 to 5 inches of accumulation (if it's all snow) in South Jersey only. While no model currently paints such a worst-case scenario, it's reasonable to consider a further-north trajectory that would put more of New Jersey in the crosshairs of accumulating snow this weekend.
Worth keeping an eye on. But I guarantee we won't have a confident handle on this potential burst of snow until Thursday at the earliest.
Looking at the long-term forecast, the next two storm systems worth watching will be around Monday and Wednesday of next week. Way too early to talk details, but let's not rule out wintry weather. I'm hopeful we'll taste sustained warmer springtime temperatures by the end of next weekend (around April 15).