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NJ weather: From warm to cool and back again

New Jersey’s climatological normal high temperatures for mid-October are in the upper 60s, while normal lows fall into the upper 40s.

A beautiful October sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean.  (Bud McCormick)
A beautiful October sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean. (Bud McCormick)

The roller coaster of autumn continues. Actually, for the past five days in a row (and counting) temperatures have remained consistently above normal by about 15 degrees. This impressive summerlike warmth will continue for another day, before we get a taste of fall for the end of the workweek.

Tuesday is beginning with mild temperatures, in the 60s and lower 70s — again, that’s akin to a typical mid-summer morning. With abundant sunshine, a light northwest breeze, and dry weather, temperatures will climb into the lower 80s for most of the state. NW NJ and the Jersey Shore may get stuck in the upper 70s — still nice and warm. South Jersey may touch 84 or 85 degrees — the record high at ACY is 85 degrees, and could be in jeopardy Tuesday.

Hopefully we’ll get a little break in the humidity, as dew points slowly decline throughout the day.

Tuesday night will be quiet and mild, with just a few clouds overhead. Most low temperatures should end up into the lower 60s.

Wednesday will be noticeably cooler than Tuesday, although still above seasonal norms. There’s actually quite a discrepancy between model forecast temperatures — the NAM is cool, and the GFS is warm. I’m leaning toward the warmer solution, but decided on a middle-of-the-road forecast. I expect highs to range from upper 60s to mid 70s.

Clouds will increase by Wednesday afternoon, ahead of our next weather-maker. This backdoor front will introduce a chance of rain showers by late-day Wednesday, potentially lingering through early Thursday morning. Nothing big — showers should be scattered, and rainfall totals should remain below a tenth of an inch.

Behind the aforementioned front will be a brisk wind and much cooler air. On the whole, Thursday will be a mostly cloudy day, with increasing breaks of sunshine through the afternoon hours. Wind gusts will increase to over 20 mph. Max temperatures will be limited to the mid 60s. You wanted Fall, you got it!

Friday will end up seasonably cool too, with forecast high temps in the mid to upper 60s. (Keep in mind, normal highs are 67 to 69 degrees.) It will be a partly sunny and calmer day — a pretty nice Fall day overall.

The early look at the weekend shows another warmup. Look for widespread 70s on Saturday, and we may even hit 80s again by Sunday.

Don’t get used to the warmth though. The big cooldown back to semi-permanent autumn temperatures looks to arrive on Monday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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