NJ weather: 50s through the start of the weekend

There are a few showers in our weather forecast, and we are tracking much colder air aiming for the Garden State by the end of the weekend.

There are a few halfway decent days in this forecast, alongside some showers and wind. A renewed November chill is set to arrive by the beginning of Thanksgiving week.

Wednesday morning is beginning with a wide range of temperatures across the state. Clear skies in northern and western New Jersey have led to some chilly temperatures, in the 20s and 30s. Along the Jersey Shore, a bank of clouds serve as a blanket, keeping temperatures from falling below the 40s. For all New Jerseyans, it'll be another jacket day.

High temperatures for Wednesday should make it to about 50 degrees, give or take — that's a few degrees warmer than the past set of days, and a few degrees shy of seasonal normals for mid-November. Sunshine should prevail by the middle of the day, with clouds increasing again through the afternoon hours. We'll stay dry during the daytime hours.

Wednesday night, however, turns a bit wet. Models have flip-flopped between "scattered showers" and "a period of steady rain" over the past few runs. Forecast rainfall totals are light, less than a quarter-inch (and primarily less than a tenth of an inch). The timeframe for rain looks to be from 8 p.m. Wednesday through 8 a.m. Thursday.

I am highly confident that temperatures across the entire state will remain well above freezing, in the lower to mid 40s at the coolest. So we're just talking raindrops overnight — not snow.

As showers wrap up Thursday morning, clouds will rapidly part, giving way to sunshine. Even more exciting will be warming temperatures, topping out in the lower 50s in North Jersey, mid 50s in Central Jersey, and close to 60 degrees in South Jersey. That's a touch above normal for this time of year!

However. I can't call Thursday a "nice" day because of a brisk west-northwest wind, gusting above 30 mph. Too blustery to be truly pleasant, unfortunately.

By Friday, temperatures fall into the cool zone again, topping out near 50 degrees. The sunshine continues, as does a stiff breeze (up to about 20 mph).

Saturday will be the last of this stretch of fairly mild days, as temperatures again surge into the upper 50s. An approaching front could cause a few popup sprinkles during the day on Saturday. The chance for steadier rain develops ahead of a cold front Saturday evening.

The effects of said cold front will settle over New Jersey on Sunday, as renewed cold temperatures will make for a chilly end to the weekend. Most high temperatures will be limited to the mid 40s. It'll be breezy and partly sunny, and a few snow showers will be possible on Sunday too.

It still looks like the lead-up to Thanksgiving will remain cool, with 40s and 50s in the forecast for the first half of the week. I had been tracking an inconvenient storm system in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame, but the GFS now shows clear sailing for New Jersey. Of course, I'm not completely convinced — I highly recommend you continue watching the forecast closely if you'll be traveling next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.