NJ temporarily transitions to cooler, unsettled weather
The forecast for the Garden State includes some rain and a taste of Autumn chill, before another big warmup for the weekend.
Here are your weather headlines for Wednesday, October 11, 2017…
I was a bit surprised to arrive in the weather center early this morning, to find healthy convection had popped just south of New Jersey (over DE, MD, and VA). There’s definitely a change in the air on this Wednesday morning, as we bid farewell to 80s (for now) and say hello to some rain over the next 24 to 36 hours.
As of this writing, we’re surrounding by rain — the aforementioned steady rain just south of Cape May, in addition to a batch of showers and sprinkles to the west in Pennsylvania. I have therefore added a shower chance to the forecast at any time Wednesday. While the short-term, mesoscale HRRR model shows it will be a very wet day, I don’t buy it. The NAM and GFS models show a much more reasonable solution — a stray shower Wednesday morning, with more widespread rainfall holding off until Wednesday evening.
Even then, the scattered showers that arrive through Wednesday night shouldn’t amount to much. Even though the models have ramped up rainfall totals a bit, to the half-inch range, it’s still not going to amount to much. We’re already running a rainfall deficit of almost an inch for the month of October, believe it or not.
I expect the wind to pick up Wednesday night too, gusting as high as 25 mph for inland New Jersey and up to 35 mph along the coast.
Bottom line… Mostly cloudy with an occasional shower on Wednesday. More widespread showers, with a brisk wind Wednesday night. Lingering showers and sprinkles on Thursday.
Meanwhile, temperatures are turning downward. If you’ve been craving more typical, seasonable Autumn weather, you’ll like the forecast for the end of the workweek.
Wednesday’s high temperatures will probably end up between 70 and 75 degrees for most of the state. The exact temp will depend heavily on the 1.) degree of cloud cover, and 2.) rainfall amount and intensity during the day.
After bottoming out around 60 degrees (give or take) by Thursday morning, thermometers will be stagnant throughout Thursday. With afternoon temps in the low to mid 60s at best, we’ll be decidedly below normal for mid-October. A continuing stiff breeze will remind us of the cooler temperatures.
Friday looks cool too, with mostly cloudy skies and high temps again stuck in the 60s.
Bottom line… 70s Wednesday. 60s Thursday and Friday.
::insert roller coaster metaphor here::
Yup, the thermometer looks to swing in the other direction for the upcoming weekend. The GFS has consistently shown an isolated shower or thunderstorm over New Jersey on Saturday morning, followed by increasing sunshine through Saturday afternoon. The sun will help push temperatures back above normal, well into the 70s for the first half of the weekend.
And Sunday gets even warmer. Records will be in jeopardy, as thermometers push into the lower to (maybe) mid 80s amid abundant sunshine.
Bottom line… 70s with an early shower for Saturday. 80s with mostly sunny skies for Sunday.
Another Big Cooldown?
::insert another roller coaster metaphor here::
Another strong cold front is progged to push through New Jersey around Monday of next week. While the frontal passage looks dry, a big northwesterly wind could carry in the coolest air of the season (so far). While I still don’t see any widespread frosts in the 7 to 10 day outlook, next week is almost certainly going to feel way more “October-ish” than our recent streak of unseasonable warmth.