Nice start to Wednesday, but a bit rain is on the way for NJ
Showers enter the forecast for the next few days, but the early look at the final weekend of Spring is pretty fantastic.
I described Tuesday as perfect, and I think Mother Nature fully delivered. The exception to the perfection may have been the slightly elevated pollen levels, but that's a sacrifice my sinuses were willing to make.
Wednesday will start off pleasant with refreshingly cool temperatures (50s) and mostly clear skies. Some clouds will roll in by Wednesday afternoon, and high temperatures will end up a bit warmer. Thermometers should rise to the lower to mid 80s across most of NJ, with 70s expected along the Jersey Shore. Humidity levels will remain manageable, although slightly higher than Tuesday. For most of the state, it will be another very nice mid-June day.
However, we'll also have to watch for a few showers drifting into South Jersey, starting around 2 p.m. Wednesday. Again, we're talking about "showers". Any rain that falls will be light, given the limited atmospheric moisture. And there's not even a concern for thunder and lightning, given limited instability in the atmosphere.
As we dive into Wednesday night, clouds will increase across the Garden State. Furthermore, as a warm front approaches the southern tip of New Jersey, everyone in the state will be prone to see some rain showers by daybreak Thursday. (Again, just showers.)
It's important to note that this warm front is not expected to push as far north as New Jersey, so we ultimately will not have to deal with heat, humidity, and persistent showers. Occasional showers remain possible throughout Thursday (especially through the morning hours). The rest of the day looks mostly cloudy, breezy, and a little bit humid. High temperatures will be limited to the lower to mid 70s.
In yesterday's weather blog, I noted the possibility of a band of heavier rain in the Thursday night-Friday morning time frame. The latest models show this batch of rain will dive south of New Jersey - a solution that makes sense given the position of the aforementioned warm front.
That means Friday will probably stay mostly dry for New Jersey, with just a few spot showers expected. Models show a blip of instability, so a rumble of thunder will be possible. As skies clear by Friday afternoon, high temperatures should return to 80 degrees for inland New Jersey. The Jersey Shore will be quite a bit cooler on Friday, as a northeast wind blows right off the ocean.
And that on-shore flow will become the only wrinkle in an otherwise gorgeous Father's Day Weekend. Most of NJ will enjoy abundant sunshine, light winds, low humidity, and high temperatures in the seasonable lower 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. The ocean-borne wind, however, will keep the beaches a little cool for this time of year. How cool? 70s at best. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 60s as well.