While Hermine's expected track didn't change much this morning, the forecast along the Jersey Shore just keeps getting worse.

The 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center didn't change Hermine's forecast track much. But that "H" marker at 8 AM Monday is bad news for NJ. That's a post-tropical cyclone, of hurricane strength. Winds near the center of the storm could be over 75 mph.

Meanwhile, the Tropical Storm Watch has been expanded further north. The watch now extends from Fenwick Island, Delaware to Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

I'm really not worried about hurricane strength winds over New Jersey. Of course, 40 or 50 mph winds could still cause power outages, bring down trees, etc.

I'm still not worried about rain. As I advertised on-air all morning, I wouldn't be surprised if parts of NJ stay mostly or completely dry.

The BIG concern continues to be the surf. The ocean is going to pound Jersey Shore beaches hard. And the surge forecast has increased to upwards of 5 feet. Eek. The worst high tide cycles will be Sunday evening and Monday morning.

And then the storm sits just off-shore, keeping the tides high through Monday. And Tuesday. And Wednesday too. Hermine is a stubborn one.

Dan Zarrow is the Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.