Fog early, warmer with sun midday, stormy later

The cool, damp, cloudy weather will transition to sunshine and warmer temperatures briefly today, but a round of storms will accompany another cold front this afternoon and evening.

Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, May 19, 2015...

Warm and Stormy

Monday was a pretty “blah” day for much of New Jersey as fog, clouds, drizzle, and cool temperatures took over the sky. (Although, the southwest corner of the state soared into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.) We’re still on the dreary side of the atmosphere, with a light on-shore flow keeping the fog, clouds, and drizzle on top of us this morning. Visibilities have been reported as low as a quarter-mile in South Jersey, and overnight rain totals were around a quarter-inch in coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties.

However, big improvements are coming by about lunchtime, as a warm front lifts through New Jersey. Through the midday hours today, skies should clear rapidly and temperatures should rise very quickly. I’m moderately confident that highs across most of the state today will reach the warm upper 70s to lower 80s. Of course, I’m also moderately hesitant here... it is possible that at least part of the state does not return to sunny, warm weather today. It’s a good day to dress in layers as this morning will stay rather cool for a little while, but this afternoon looks warm and humid.

The other weather concern today will be another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, for the fourth day in a row. Part of that storm risk will come from diurnal convection, fueled by the heat of the day. Another factor here will be an approaching cold front - even though the cooler air won’t arrive until tonight, the lift from the front could help in spawning a few areas of rain as well.

All rain should be done by midnight... just in time for the aforementioned cooler air to funnel in.

Cooler and Clear

Following tonight’s cold front passage, temperatures will cool off a bit for Wednesday. With highs within a few degrees of 70°, Wednesday won’t be too bad by late Spring standards. There will be a brisk wind tomorrow, perhaps gusting to 25 mph, along with pleasant partly sunny skies.

As high pressure builds in, we’ll enjoy a slow warming trend through the rest of the workweek. A few extra clouds and even a late shower in South Jersey will be possible on Thursday, as a storm system swings through the mid-Atlantic states. Highs should still average in the lower 70s on Thursday. Friday will feature lots of sunshine, and highs bumping into the mid 70s.

Memorial Day Weekend

I promised to keep you apprised of the latest forecast developments for the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. And that forecast is still looking pretty good. Not perfect though.

There are two weather issues that may affect your holiday weekend plans. The first will be the effects of a weak cold front that pushes across New Jersey on Friday night. It looks like we’ll stay dry from this front (aside from maybe a light shower). But it looks like we’ll get a brief shot of cooler air on Saturday. That will push temperatures below normal for mid-to-late May, with expected highs on Saturday possibly as cool as the mid 60s. Certainly a nice Spring day, and we’ll have plenty of sunshine... you’ll just have to decide if it will be warm enough to bask on the beach all day.

Sunday looks very good all around, with mostly to partly sunny skies and temperatures bumping into the 70s statewide. I’m still tracking a rain chance Sunday night into Monday, but it really doesn’t look to amount to very much. That’s good news! And I’m also happy to report that Memorial Day Monday could turn out to be the warmest day of the long weekend, with temperatures approaching 80°.