First day of Spring approaches, but with snow and cold rain

New Jersey will see cool, quiet weather through Thursday night, before a winter storm will bring the potential for some accumulating snow and some rain just in time for the first day of Spring on Friday.

After temperatures in the 60s and even 70s on Tuesday, Wednesday’s highs will struggle to climb through the 40s. A gusty wind will keep the air chilly today. On Thursday, as high pressure settles right on top of us, winds will die down so those highs in the 40s will be a bit more comfortable.

Now, on to the big weather story of the week...

We’ve had a nice break in the snowfall action lately, but Mother Nature will remind us this Friday that snow in New Jersey remains wholly possible through April.

To be clear, this is NOT a major winter storm. As shown above, marginal snow totals up to 3 or 4 inches are expected. The snow is expected to change over to a cold rain for most of the state for most of the day Friday. That will limit snow accumulations for all but the coldest part of the state. So the biggest impact from this system will be the potential for slushy, icy, or (at least) wet roads through the day on Friday through Friday night.

The first flakes are expected around sunrise on Friday morning. (It is likely that all of New Jersey will see snow to start on Friday.) As temperatures warm a bit into the mid or upper 30s, the snow will transition to rain. The heaviest precipitation is expected Friday afternoon and evening. And final flakes and drops will happen by early Saturday morning.

I often talk about how winter storm forecasts are incredibly temperature-dependent. And this one is, of course, no exception. I think I’ve presented a realistic “first stab” snow total forecast, balancing the even-higher snow amounts from some models (I’m looking at you, Euro) with some lowball “no big deal" totals from other forecasters. Since the start of this storm is still 48 hours away and the models have been flip-flopping all week, the forecast is likely to evolve a bit more through the rest of the week. I’ll keep you posted.