April showers in the forecast for the rest of the week
Spot showers already have been moving through New Jersey this morning, and a period of wet, unsettled weather looks to continue through the end of the workweek.
Despite yesterday’s gorgeous Spring weather, with widespread highs in the 70s across New Jersey, we’re entering a wet weather pattern through late Friday night. In addition, temperatures will be taking a bit of a tumble through midweek.
We’ve been seeing spot showers since early this morning, and the rain will continue to be on-and-off through the rest of the day. As a cold front sags south through New Jersey late this afternoon and this evening, we will probably develop some areas of steadier and heavier rainfall. In addition, that front will usher in much cooler air tonight on some gusty winds.
Both Wednesday and Thursday will be significantly cooler than the past several days, with highs only in the mid to upper 40s. (That’s about 10° to 15° below normal for early April.) And we have to continue a chance for scattered showers through this cooler period, although the rainfall should be spotty and light. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if some parts of the state stay dry from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.
Heavier pockets of rain will resume Thursday night through Friday as warmer, more humid air lifts into New Jersey from the south. Not only will that contribute to an overall wet day for Friday with showers and thunderstorms, but high temperatures should return to the 60s.
Here’s a rundown of some additional vital forecast information for this wet week...
How much rain are we expecting? Models show rain totals from Tuesday through Friday will average about an inch... maybe a little bit more. That’s really not a lot, although pockets of heavier rain would obviously lead to isolated higher totals.
Best chances for heavy rain? Heavier, steadier rain is expected during Tuesday evening’s cold frontal passage and Friday morning’s warm frontal passage.
Best chances for thunder and lightning? There is a blip of instability showing up for Tuesday, so a few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out. Chances for lightning and thunder will be somewhat more likely for Friday, in the warm sector.
What about frozen precipitation? Sigh. Yes, there is a slight chance for some light snow and sleet in the midst of all the rain. The forecast low temperature on Thursday morning in North Jersey is 35°. So if a band of showers coincides with that colder air, it could fall as sleet or snow. However, the pool of cold air will be quite shallow - probably too shallow for the rain to refreeze as it falls through the warmer upper atmosphere. So the chance is there, but I think you can keep the snow shovels safely stowed away this week.
What’s this about a light at the end of the tunnel? It’s a wet week and, of course, that’s nothing unusual for April. But I think by the end of the week, New Jersey will be craving more beautiful spring days like Monday. And confidence is growing that Mother Nature will deliver on that desire, just in time for the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday are looking dry, seasonably mild, and downright pleasant with highs in the 60s.