Another warm, muggy, and potentially stormy day
Scattered thunderstorms with localized heavy downpours are likely to pop up again this afternoon, as temperatures soar well into the 80s.
Here are your weather headlines for Thursday, May 28, 2015...
A Taste of Summer: Humidity and Storms
Yesterday, several noisy thunderstorms popped up in the heat and humidity of the day, and dumped some torrential rain over much of New Jersey. Not everyone got wet (sorry, Jersey Shore), but upwards of a half-inch to an inch of rain was recorded at several weather stations statewide. The downpours are certainly welcome help toward our growing rainfall deficit, but precipitation remains well below normal for May.
The summerlike weather continues today, with warm and humid air remaining in place. Thursday’s high temperatures should be pretty close to Wednesday’s readings, and skies should be a bit more blue today. Additionally, that gusty wind from yesterday shouldn’t be as fierce today, as gusts look to peak at only 15 or 20 mph.
As a weak frontal boundary traverses the state today, we’ll once again have the ingredients necessary for some daytime convection - thunderstorms. The timing for any storms appears to be in the 1 p.m. to 9 p.m. time frame. The severe weather parameters are lower today than yesterday, lending toward a weaker storm forecast overall. However, some strong storms with heavy downpours and frequent lightning are likely from any storms that gets started. The models place the bullseye of thunderstorm activity in Central and South Jersey today (specifically around Monmouth, Mercer, and Ocean counties)... but I wouldn’t rule out rain and storms today anywhere in the state. Once again, someone will see storms today, but not everyone will get wet.
Squeaking Out Some Nice Weather?
Aside from an isolated shower and patchy fog tonight, skies should clear with light winds. Slightly lower humidity and slightly cooler air will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s by Friday morning.
Friday will be warm and somewhat humid once again, although the early-season 90° temperatures should be done for now. Highs on Friday are expected to be in the 78° to 84° range. We should see some breaks of sun, and this remains a mostly dry forecast with just an isolated shower chance. Overall, a pretty nice day.
Saturday’s forecast is a little tougher, as the dynamics of an approaching cold front will have increasing effects on our weather throughout the day. For now, we’re thinking skies will go from partly to mostly cloudy on Saturday, with high temperatures similar to Friday (78° to 84°). Overall, not a bad start to the weekend... although some showers could encroach New Jersey as the day presses on (late afternoon, evening, etc.) Forecast uncertainty is still pretty high for Saturday.
By Sunday morning, the aforementioned cold front will start pushing through New Jersey. The immediate impact will be some rain... unfortunately for all the weekend-lovers across the Garden State, that rain looks pretty steady throughout the day. There could be a bit of clearing by late Sunday afternoon, but that timing is far from certain at this time.
Eventually, the cooler and drier air mass behind the front will settle over us. Sunday’s high temperature will be limited to the 70s, and will likely happen in the morning before temperatures start to drop. By Monday and Tuesday, the full force of the cool air will keep high temperatures in the 60s - a very noticeable difference from this week’s stretch of near-90° weather!
The chance for rain will continue early next week, although the timing, intensity, and spread is still up in the air. At the moment, Monday could see some clearing while Tuesday brings another shot of rain showers.