A soggy start to December for New Jersey
Rain chances are in the forecast for the Garden State through midweek, as temperatures hover near-to-above seasonal normals.
Here are your weather headlines for Monday, November 30, 2015...
Clouds and Rain Arrive
On this back-to-work and back-to-school Monday, we are also preparing to bid farewell to climatological autumn and the hurricane season. Some changes are ahead for New Jersey's weather as the calendar turns over to December... get the umbrella ready!
Clouds and humidity have already been on the increase, thanks to an approaching storm system and a stiff easterly breeze. As of this writing, the leading showers of that system are pushing into Washington DC and the Chesapeake Bay basin. Models show some light showers are possible in far South Jersey this afternoon, but most of New Jersey should stay dry today. Keep in mind any weather radar image you look at today could be a bit deceiving, as New Jersey's primary radar system at Fort Dix is out-of-service awaiting repair.
Monday will be mostly dry, but not all that pretty, with mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures will be limited to the lower 40s in North Jersey, mid 40s in Central Jersey, and upper 40s in South Jersey.
As rain chances increase Monday night into Tuesday, eventually we'll see pockets of light to moderate rain across the entire state. Having said that, there will be some breaks in the rainfall action - especially around Tuesday afternoon.
It's also important to point out that for almost all of New Jersey, temperatures will stay well above freezing for this weather event. So we are almost exclusively expecting rain this week. However, the exception could be far North Jersey, in the higher elevations of Sussex County. With low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s tonight, there could be a period of snow or freezing rain by early Tuesday morning. Again, that kind of wintry precipitation will be excessively rare in New Jersey this week.
Heaviest Rain of the Week
Models show the wettest period of the week will come Tuesday night into Wednesday, with some bands of heavy rain expected. No severe weather here, and the flooding risk is low thanks to the dry ground and lack of truly deep convection. Just be prepared for downright soggy weather for much of the week.
Thanks to the warm front driving much of this rain, Wednesday's high temperatures will be in the lower 60s for much of New Jersey. That's about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early December!
Overall rainfall totals this week are expected to fall between 1 and 2.5 inches statewide. I know that's a big range... but the bottom line is that we should get a good soaking this week. That's good news, as rainfall totals for November were upwards of 2 inches below normal (in North Jersey).
Drying Out, Cooling Down
A cold front will push through New Jersey Wednesday night, effectively sweeping out the persistent rain and returning drier and cooler air to the Garden State. A very consistent weather pattern will ensue for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday featuring abundant sunshine and seasonable high temperatures around 50 degrees.