A rainy Thursday for New Jersey
The forecast through this weekend includes rain, warm temperatures, sunshine, a cooldown, and even a few snow showers.
Here are your weather headlines for Thursday, November 19, 2015...
A Rainy Day in Jersey
All week long, we have been tracking a powerful storm system that has brought a variety of bad weather to much of the country. It is now New Jersey's turn to experience this weather system... but ultimately Thursday is just going to be a rainy day. Amidst the raindrops, skies will be cloudy, winds will be breezy (20 mph), and high temperatures will be pretty warm in the mid 60s
We know it's going to be a wet day overall, with steady rain through most of the daytime and evening hours. We know rainfall totals will probably end up between about 0.60" and 1.20" (so we'll call it "a widespread inch"). We know there will likely be periods of steady to heavy rain today. However, unfortunately, forecast models have been very poor at resolving the timing of today's heaviest rain in New Jersey. NAM says late morning... HRRR says afternoon... GFS says early evening... Euro says late evening... Yuck. So we have to keep all options open, so it would be wise to keep the umbrella and raincoat handy all day and all night.
The rain should taper off late tonight, especially after midnight, and skies will start to clear. The ensuing cold front that passes late tonight will open the door for much cooler air...
Let the Cooldown Begin
According to my math and research, the first 18 days of November 2015 ranks among the top 3 warmest on record (behind 1994 and 1975). You had to know this streak of above-normal temperatures would not last... and the chill of November does in fact appear for this weekend.
Friday's forecast high temperatures are actually seasonable for mid-November, averaging in the mid 50s across the state. (New Jersey's current normal highs range from 53 to 55 degrees.) The northwest breeze will be brisk, up to about 20 mph, as skies become mostly sunny.
Saturday morning will probably bring a widespread frost/freeze. High temperatures on Saturday will climb to either side of 50 degrees. Not a terrible day... but definitely jacket weather all-day.
How Low Can We Go?
Sunday gets a bit iffy... A storm system will be sliding across the Great Lakes, and is expected to bring accumulating snow from Nebraska to Michigan. The current forecast track of this system will remain well north of New Jersey, but I still think there's a good possibility that we get clipped by the precipitation. For the Garden State, this morning's models show an intrusion of warmer air Sunday morning... in that case, our only potential weather effect here in N.J. would be light rain. If, however, models flip back to a colder forecast, I could see a period of snow showers early Sunday morning. Best timing would be between about 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. on Sunday, and best location for the snowflakes would be in the northwest corner of the state. IF it's cold enough for snow and IF the precipitation actually makes it far enough south to affect New Jersey, snow accumulation is unlikely.
Meanwhile, temperatures will be quite chilly to close out the weekend and begin the Thanksgiving week. Sunday's high temperatures will be in the upper 40s, but Monday only tops out in the lower 40s. The early forecast for Thanksgiving and Black Friday keeps our weather dry and cool.