A ‘boring’ weather forecast for NJ: Pleasant, sunny, and fairly cool
No heat, no humidity. No rain, no rip currents. No complaining!
Just like that, the humidity has been zapped from the air. And we get to enjoy an extended period of beautiful, dry weather for the first time in a long time!
In an effort to keep this weather blog post short n' sweet, I'm going to focus on the big bullet points and my concerns over the coming days. Please check out the weather page for forecast details.
Thursday will probably be the warmest day of the next seven.
Below-normal temperatures will be the big story of this week. For part of the Garden State, Thursday may actually be the last day the thermometer reaches 80 degrees for over a week! It's going to feel more like mid-September than mid-to-late August. 70s are still pleasant, mind you. It just mind not be the ideal weather for a trip to the beach or dunk in the pool.
On-shore flow picks up Sunday.
A minor wind shift will occur on Sunday, from northerly to southeasterly. That switch to an on-shore flow means the marine air (over the ocean) will have a greater influence on our weather conditions. Temperatures will probably cool even more, especially along the coast and especially on Monday and Tuesday when winds come straight out of the east. Increasing cloud cover is expected too, again especially from Monday to Tuesday. Finally, the rip current risk will probably increase from low to moderate due to the more significant easterly wind component.
Next chance for substantial rain is almost a week away.
High pressure and sinking air will keep storm systems away from the Garden State, and severely limit rain chances for the next week. (The NAM model paints an isolated shower over New Jersey early Friday morning, but I don't buy it — our air is ridiculously dry and stable right now.)
Peak of the tropical season is in full swing.
While there are no imminent threats to New Jersey, we're always keeping eyes on the Atlantic, especially as the hurricane season climaxes in the coming weeks. There are two items of note in the Atlantic basin right now. An area of heavy, tropical rainfall is just off the Gulf Coast of Florida — rainfall from this storm system may be measured in feet. As this area of low pressure enters the ocean, it is expected to stay away from the East Coast and head out to sea, but is still worth watching for track wiggling and/or surf concerns. In addition, Tropical Storm Harvey has reformed in the western Gulf of Mexico, and will make landfall in southern Texas early Saturday morning as a tropical storm or hurricane. The remnant moisture from Harvey will swing our way late next week, and could contribute to some heavy rain just as the Labor Day Weekend begins.