The latest forecast update pushes the heaviest snow totals (6 to 9 inches) further south, but everyone in New Jersey is still prone for significant snowfall tonight and tomorrow.

The latest snowfall forecast for the winter storm expected to move into New Jersey tonight through tomorrow. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)
Current radar image (green=rain, blue=snow).

RAIN: Periods of rain will continue through the afternoon and evening. There are some very big puddles out there, as many storm drains, rivers, streams, and creeks are clogged with snow and ice. Your evening commute will be wet, but not wintry yet.

TIMING: Rain will change to snow late this evening through early tomorrow morning. That transition could happen as early as 7 PM tonight in North Jersey, and as late as about 4 AM for South Jersey. By the time you wake up tomorrow morning, any falling precipitation will be snow, and you’ll likely have a few inches of snow on the ground.

INTENSITY: Once the temperature turns cold enough, we’ll likely transition very quickly from moderate/heavy rain to moderate/heavy snow. As temperatures continue to drop and the snow overcomes the wet, warm ground, the snow will begin to accumulate quickly. The heaviest snowfall looks to be early Thursday morning and again Thursday afternoon. During the heaviest deluges of snow, over an inch per hour will be possible.

Current warnings and advisories from the National Weather Service.

WARNING: The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for most of New Jersey for tonight through tomorrow. A Winter Storm Warning means heavy snowfall (over about 4”) will be possible, causing significant travel conditions. The warning is in effect for Hunterdon, Somerset, Union, Middlesex, and Mercer counties from 7 p.m. Wednesday to 7 p.m. Thursday. The warning will run from 11 p.m. Wednesday until 7 p.m. Thursday for Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May counties. The rest of the state is under a less-urgent Winter Storm Watch, which may be upgraded to a Warning if conditions warrant.

SWEET SPOT: The latest forecast models show the “sweet spot” of highest snow totals to set up over the central to southern parts of the state. We're calling for 6 to 9 inches of snow accumulation generally from I-195 southward, with the exception of the southern coast. See the map above for a better representation of our latest forecast.

NORTH: It is unlikely that the heaviest precipitation bands will reach into North Jersey, and so we have lowered snow totals for the northern third of the state. In fact, it’s wholly possible that Sussex County sees hardly any snow at all. But there is enough model agreement to show that 2-4” is possible here to warrant including the chance in our forecast.

SOUTH/COAST: I remain concerned that the extreme south coast will remain above freezing a bit longer, and will therefore see slightly lower snow totals. In the latest forecast update, I’ve limited this concession to coastal Ocean and Atlantic counties along with most of Cape May County.

THE END: Thursday will be a very snowy day, as the precipitation doesn’t look to taper off significantly until the evening. Final flakes are expected between 7 p.m. and Midnight tomorrow.

AFTERMATH: Behind the snow, temperatures will continue dropping overnight, and we’ll have another frigid day ahead for Friday. Some low temperatures will fall into the single digits, and highs will struggle to surpass the mid 20s. Luckily, this arctic blast will be temporary, as a slow warmup will ensue this weekend.

Be safe, be smart, and enjoy the snow... As always, we’ll be here - both on-air and online - with the latest news, weather, and traffic updates throughout the storm.