Persistent moderate to heavy rain is expected Thursday, which may lead to flooding and travel problems.

Umbrellas and windshield wipers across the Garden State will get quite a workout today, as we see a day of soaking rain. Here's a full breakdown of this soggy forecast for today and beyond...

  • The Setup... A front is currently draped across much of the country, from Maine to Texas. As that front continues to move through New Jersey today, impulses will ride along it from southwest to northeast. Those disturbances will provide us with a continuing chance for rain, pretty much all day.
  • We Really Need It...
    The latest Drought Monitor upgraded about 17% of northeastern N.J. in the "Moderate Drought" category. (UNL / US Drought Monitor)
    The latest Drought Monitor upgraded about 17% of northeastern N.J. in the "Moderate Drought" category. (UNL / US Drought Monitor)
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    Timeline...
    Live weather radar
    Live weather radar
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    Totals...
    Widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals are expected today for New Jersey. (NOAA Weather Prediction Center)
    Widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals are expected today for New Jersey. (NOAA Weather Prediction Center)
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    Flooding Threat...

    Current weather warnings and advisories

    Current weather warnings and advisories
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    Severe Weather Risk...
    Thursday's severe weather outlook shows a likelihood for thunderstorms, but a low chance for severe winds, hail, and tornadoes. (NOAA Storm Prediction Center)
    Thursday's severe weather outlook shows a likelihood for thunderstorms, but a low chance for severe winds, hail, and tornadoes. (NOAA Storm Prediction Center)
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  • Other Impacts... It is important to note that any thunderstorm is potentially dangerous due to lightning. Additionally, periods of heavy rain may significantly reduce visibility today, making driving conditions difficult. Finally, our recent lack of rain has led to a buildup of "crud" - oils, dirt, leaves, etc. - on the road. That could serve to reduce traction even more than usual, especially on curves, on-ramps, and jughandles. All of these serve as additional reasons to be extra-careful and extra-vigilent throughout today's rain and storms.
  • The End Game... Models are showing the chance for heavy rain will decrease significantly late this evening, after about 10 p.m. Showers could linger through early Friday morning, especially along the coast. As the rain ends Friday morning, skies will clear slowly through Friday afternoon. A brisk wind will accompany seasonable high temperatures around 80°.
  • Beyond the Rain... Rain begets more rain... Another storm system is expected to bring even more wet weather to New Jersey, and unfortunately it looks to happen this weekend. By late afternoon Saturday, a storm system will lift northward into New Jersey, and so we have to add showers and thunderstorms to the forecast through Saturday night and much of the day Sunday. Some of that rain could be steady or heavy at times, especially in overnight hours between Saturday and Sunday. This weekend won't be a washout, but it might be close. We'll have more resolution on that timing once our current rain event is over. One thing is sure - we are done with 90+ degree temperatures for a while!
  • Please be safe and be smart during today's potentially dangerous weather. Keep an ear to your radio and an eye to the web this afternoon for the latest updates on this ever-developing wet weather day.

    Dan Zarrow is the Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow his forecasts and weather updates on Facebook and Twitter.

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