8 things to know about New Jersey’s impending rain, wind, and cooldown
An approaching cold front will bring a variety of weather conditions to the Garden State through the upcoming weekend.
1.) Stormy Setup
A strong November storm system wreaked havoc across Iowa and neighboring states yesterday, with reports of heavy rain, hail, damaging winds, several tornadoes, and even some snow. Yes, that storm system is headed our way for Thursday. But before anyone freaks out about impending doom and destruction, I can assure you the weather impacts on New Jersey won't be nearly as bad.
This system will jog northeastward today, and the center of low pressure is expected to pass well north of New Jersey. That keeps the chance for truly nasty weather out of our forecast today. However, cold front trailing below this system will still bring us some big weather changes over the next 2-3 days.
2.) Rain Timing
Showers look to spread from west to east today, starting this morning (first raindrops around 7 a.m.) Behind this initial round of light rain will be a band of steadier, heavier rain. If that swath of rain holds together, it will push across the Garden State from about lunchtime through the afternoon (about 11 a.m. to 4 p.m.). A lingering shower or sprinkle will remain possible through about midnight tonight, before skies start to clear rapidly overnight.
3.) Rainfall Totals
For the most part, rain gauges across New Jersey will accumulate only about a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rainfall today. (That's really not a lot.) The highest precipitation totals will be in the northwest, and the lightest rain will fall across New Jersey's south coast. If a thunderstorm or downpour forms at any point, locally higher amounts are certainly a possibility as well.
Given the history of this storm system and above-normal temperatures in the 60s today, our atmosphere could develop a bit of instability today. That would most likely manifest itself as a few rumbles of thunder. A few of the showers and storms may push out some marginally severe gusty winds as well, so it will be important to stay vigilant today. That is particularly true when the period of steady rain is just about to begin, as the outflow wind would be out ahead of the storms.
The best chance for a stronger thunderstorm will be in the central to southern part of the state, where temperatures will be a bit warmer today.
5.) Gusty Winds, Blustery Days
Behind the rain will come a cold front, passing through New Jersey this evening. Behind the front will eventually come cooler air. And that cooler air will be delivered by a gusty wind that will continue through part of the weekend.
Wind speeds will be elevated late today into tonight, with gusts above 30 mph possible. The brisk westerly wind will peak during the day on Friday, with potential gusts to 45 mph - that will definitely be noticeable, and will make the day quite "blustery" overall. On Saturday, wind gusts to 35 mph will remain possible for at least the first half of the day. By Sunday, the wind will finally subside as high pressure moves overhead, and winds will remain light through the first half of next week.
6.) November Cooldown
The final impact of our impending cold front will be some truly "November-ish" air, featuring the coldest temperatures since mid-October.
Thursday will remain on the mild side, with above-normal high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in North Jersey to the lower 60s in Central Jersey to the mid 60s in South Jersey.
Friday will turn a bit cooler, as thermometers will climb to about the normal mark in the mid to upper 50s. We will enjoy abundant sunshine across New Jersey... But remember, that wind will be pretty fierce, so the day might not be all that pleasant overall.
Temperatures will bottom out on Saturday, with a morning frost/freeze possible and high temperatures only around 50 degrees. The current forecast would make Saturday the coldest day in New Jersey since mid-March.
7.) Sunday and Beyond
Winds will finally calm down on Sunday. That will allow temperatures to get quite chilly on Sunday morning - with lows in the lower to mid 30s, a widespread freeze or frost is likely. Meanwhile, thanks to the lighter winds, temperatures will be allowed to warm back up on Sunday afternoon. We will close out the weekend with highs recovering into the mid 50s. A warming trend and a return to 60s will continue for early next week.
8.) A New Way to Follow the Forecast!
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